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LADYBLUE999

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Member Since: 10/2008Last Seen: 11/15/2009

Unemployment Up Dramatically! Stocks Rise! Huh?

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But there is another reason high unemployment may excite investors. Current layoffs are likely, for many workers, to be permanent. A recent report that productivity-work output per worker-was up at a 9.55 annual rate in the Third Quarter, is an indication that those companies that haven't shut down operations are making or doing more with fewer workers. That kind of thing happens in recessions, because as joblessness gets worse, those workers who still have jobs become more docile and are willing to be worked harder by management. Of course, you get more on-the-job injuries, more stress-related illness, etc. along with that kind of speed-up, but over the shorter term, it looks good on the books if you're cranking out more product with a lower payroll.

Of course, longer term, this is all a disaster, not just for laid-off and afraid-to-be-laid-off workers, but for the country as a whole. You can't rebuild an economy with more than one-in-ten workers unemployed. And remember, that's just the people who are our of a job and still looking for one; it doesn't count those who have been out of work for so long, or who work in professions that are so gone (like construction or maybe manufacturing Saturns) that they've just given up looking, or those who have taken part-time jobs in ice-cream parlors or selling apples to survive but who want to be fully employed again. If you add those people into the mix (which is the way the US used to count unemployment until the 1980s), you get an unemployment rate closer to 20%, or one in five! And you sure can't rebuild an economy with one in five workers unemployed.

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{"commentId":10554693,"authorDomain":"ladyblue999"}
Well, the tube analysts are quick to say, unemployment figures are a "lagging" indicator. That is, employment generally lags the overall economy, with layoffs coming after a recession kicks in, and hiring waiting until a recovery is well underway.
But that isn't true with a deep recession like this one, because at some point-and we're well past that point-high and pro-longed unemployment leads to reduced demand for goods and services, and to a psychology of fear and consumer withdrawal. Once people feel that they aren't going to find a new job soon, and once those who still have jobs feel that their employment is not secure, they no longer buy things except what they absolutely need. And in an economy where fully 72% of economic activity is consumer spending, that is no longer a "lagging indicator." High, prolonged unemployment becomes a causal factor in the economic downturn.
{"commentId":10554693,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"ladyblue999"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 3:19 AM EST
{"commentId":10556960,"authorDomain":"PamelaDrew"}
And in an economy where fully 72% of economic activity is consumer spending, that is no longer a "lagging indicator." High, prolonged unemployment becomes a causal factor in the economic downturn.

That's the first time I've seen consumer spending quoted as more than two thirds of the economy. What's key in my view is that we the people still hold the bulk of the economic clout, though you'd hardly know that from the way consumers are treated by Wall Street or Washington.

Part of the problem with the current, collapsing economy is that it operates for quarterly profits for Wall Street, rather than focusing on sustainable growth for communities and the population in general. Too much money funds those who create nothing and as much goes to funding destruction in assorted ways from war to industrial waste and infrastructure decay.

My hope is that Americans lead a shift from feeding the corporate welfare beast that has a strangle hold on Congress and revert to small, sustainable growth that is based on local resources, local needs and local employees.

As long as it is worth more to the investment world to chop and drop domestic workers and production facilities the upside for the DOW is downside for most of the rest of us.

{"commentId":10556960,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"PamelaDrew"}
  • 2 votes
#1.1 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 9:56 AM EST
{"commentId":10557468,"authorDomain":"cplmcl"}

Pamela Drew: What's key in my view is that we the people still hold the bulk of the economic clout, though you'd hardly know that from the way consumers are treated by Wall Street or Washington. As long as it is worth more to the investment world to chop and drop domestic workers and production facilities the upside for the DOW is downside for most of the rest of us.

My hope is that Americans lead a shift from feeding the corporate welfare beast that has a strangle hold on Congress and revert to small, sustainable growth that is based on local resources, local needs and local employees.

Part of the problem with the current, collapsing economy is that it operates for quarterly profits for Wall Street, rather than focusing on sustainable growth for communities and the population in general. Too much money funds those who create nothing and as much goes to funding destruction in assorted ways from war to industrial waste and infrastructure decay.

As crisp, concise, and easy to understand an explanation of what's happening to us as I've ever seen. Which is no small thing, since you can't fight something you don't even know is happening.

Now if there were some way to bottle that, mass-produce it, distribute it, and inject it into the veins of We The People regardless of the party or philosophy we've aligned ourselves with, maybe the scattershot, misdirected, poorly-articulated wrath most of us really don't know what to do with would bear fruit.

And wouldn't that be something.

{"commentId":10557468,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"cplmcl"}
  • 3 votes
#1.2 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 10:30 AM EST
{"commentId":10560626,"authorDomain":"freebirdsfine"}
shift from feeding the corporate welfare beast

.

well said

{"commentId":10560626,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"freebirdsfine"}
  • 1 vote
#1.3 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 1:49 PM EST
{"commentId":10572996,"authorDomain":"PamelaDrew"}

Prospero1...Now if there were some way to bottle that, mass-produce it, distribute it, and inject it into the veins of We The People regardless of the party or philosophy we've aligned ourselves with, maybe the scattershot, misdirected, poorly-articulated wrath most of us really don't know what to do with would bear fruit.

And wouldn't that be something.

Yes indeed, marvelous doesn't begin to capture the spirit of it, stupendous for sure. While there isn't one thing any of us can do there are a lot of small things we can accomplish.

Support small and local efforts where ever possible, especially with bank deposits. Don't give the TARO gang one penny of your money to hold and try to spend where it feeds families over funds. Take a peek at The Tapeworm Economy for more on the broad economics and dirty Wall Street Cartel and look to Local Harvest for delicious antidotes from gardeners to greenmarkets!

It's happening already and what a wonderful ride, one by one, day by day, dollar by dollar, go us!!

{"commentId":10572996,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"PamelaDrew"}
  • 2 votes
#1.4 - Mon Nov 9, 2009 11:05 AM EST
Reply
{"commentId":10557491,"authorDomain":"cookaerospace"}

I think stocks are up simply because most of us think that stocks will inflate in pace with the hyper-inflation that Obamacrat stimulus gifts to their friends will surely cause by inflating the money supply.

{"commentId":10557491,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"cookaerospace"}
    Reply#2 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 10:32 AM EST
    {"commentId":10561654,"authorDomain":"freebirdsfine"}

    selective thinking much?

    {"commentId":10561654,"threadId":"719427","contentId":"3473692","authorDomain":"freebirdsfine"}
      #2.1 - Sun Nov 8, 2009 2:57 PM EST
      Reply
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